The number of passengers passing through keflavík airport could reach close to 8 million in 2024

A new summary provided by Isavia that outlines the potential number of passengers passing through Keflavík Airport in the next three years reveals that if the most promising predictions come to fruition, a larger number of passengers will be utilising the airport in 2024 than in 2019, i.e. before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Roughly 7 million passengers passed through the airport in 2019, compared to 1.3 million in 2020 during the recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The scenarios outlined by the company indicate that the estimated number of passengers will reach 2.2 million in the current year, around 4–5 million in 2022, 4–6 million in 2023 and between 5.5 and 7.9 in the year 2024.

This summary is not a proper traffic forecast in keeping with those that were published yearly by Isavia before the COVID-19 pandemic. The last traffic forecast for 2020 was published in late 2019. Since then, largely due to COVID-19, a complete uncertainty within the aviation industry has made it all but impossible to predict future progress.

Guðmundur Daði Rúnarsson, the Chief Commercial and Airport Development Officer (CCDO) at Isavia, claims that “the outlined scenarios have been created to facilitate airport operators in making future plans and to set out potential projections, such as the ones relating to service competition at the airport.” Guðmundur Daði further notes that “in creating those passenger projections, data from officially disclosed flight plans by airlines that utilise Keflavík Airport was extracted.”

Should the most promising prediction for year 2024 come to fruition and the number of passengers passing through Keflavík Airport come close to 7.9 million, it would constitute the third highest ever number of passengers utilising the airport in a single year. In 2017 and 2018, the number of passengers was higher.

Guðmundur Daði claims that “it should be noted that whether the predictions come to fruition will be subject to the slightest change.” He adds that “the recovery of passenger traffic through Keflavík Airport must accelerate at a greater speed than what was experienced last summer and in autumn.” Firm and ever-changing infection prevention measures at the Icelandic borders discourage foreign airlines. This development causes great concern. Flight connections, which are vital to maintain the living standards in Iceland, have either ceased or at the very least have stagnated.

Guðmundur Daði points out that the summer season at Keflavík Airport showed progression this year – the recovery has been steadier when compared to competitive airports around the world. He adds that “this year, Keflavík Airport has recommenced 79% of the destinations on offer in 2019, compared to 72% in Copenhagen, 71% in Oslo, 67% in Stockholm and 59% in Helsinki. It is important to maintain the good progress that has been made,” Guðmundur Daði concludes.